The Global Market for Biofuels to 2033

February 2023 | 322 pages, 74 tables, 84 figures | Download table of contents

Renewable energy sources can be converted directly into biofuels. There has been a huge growth in the production and usage of biofuels as substitutes for fossil fuels. Due to the declining reserve of fossil resources as well as environmental concerns, and essential energy security, it is important to develop renewable and sustainable energy and chemicals.

The use of biofuels manufactured from plant-based biomass as feedstock would reduce fossil fuel consumption and consequently the negative impact on the environment. Renewable energy sources cover a broad raw material base, including cellulosic biomass (fibrous and inedible parts of plants), waste materials, algae, and biogas.

The Global Market for Biofuels covers bio-based fuels, bio-diesel, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), biogas, electrofuels (e-fuels), green ammonia based on utilization of:

First-Generation Feedstocks (food-based) e.g. Waste oils including used cooking oil, animal fats, and other fatty acids.
Second-Generation Feedstocks (non-food based) e.g. Lignocellulosic wastes and residues, Energy crops, Agricultural residues, Forestry residues, Biogenic fraction of municipal and industrial waste.
Third-Generation Feedstocks e.g. algal biomass
Fourth-Generation Feedstocks e.g. genetically modified (GM) algae and cyanobacteria.

Report contents include:

Market trends and drivers.
Market challenges.
Biofuels costs, now and estimated to 2033.
Biofuel consumption to 2033.
Market analysis including key players, end use markets, production processes, costs, production capacities, market demand for biofuels, bio-jet fuels, biodiesel, bio-naphtha, bio-based alcohol fuels, biofuel from plastic waste & used tires, biofuels from carbon capture, renewable diesel, biogas, chemical recycling based biofels, electrofuels, green ammonia and other relevant technologies.
Production and synthesis methods.
Biofuel industry developments and investments 2020-2023.
171 company profiles including BTG Bioliquids, Byogy Renewables, Caphenia, Enerkem, Infinium. Eni S.p.A., Ensyn, FORGE Hydrocarbons Corporation, Fulcrum Bioenergy, Genecis Bioindustries, Gevo, Haldor Topsoe, Infinium Electrofuels, Opera Bioscience, Steeper Energy, SunFire GmbH, Vertus Energy and Viridos, Inc.

1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 18

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 19

2.1 Market drivers 19
2.2 Market challenges 20
2.3 Liquid biofuels market 2020-2033, by type and production 21

3 INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS 2020-2023 24

4 BIOFUELS 28

4.1 The global biofuels market 28
- 4.1.1 Diesel substitutes and alternatives 28
- 4.1.2 Gasoline substitutes and alternatives 30
4.2 Comparison of biofuel costs 2022, by type 30
4.3 Types 31
- 4.3.1 Solid Biofuels 31
- 4.3.2 Liquid Biofuels 32
- 4.3.3 Gaseous Biofuels 32
- 4.3.4 Conventional Biofuels 33
- 4.3.5 Advanced Biofuels 33
4.4 Feedstocks 34
- 4.4.1 First-generation (1-G) 36
- 4.4.2 Second-generation (2-G) 37
  - 4.4.2.1 Lignocellulosic wastes and residues 38
  - 4.4.2.2 Biorefinery lignin 39
- 4.4.3 Third-generation (3-G) 43
  - 4.4.3.1 Algal biofuels 43
- 4.4.4 Fourth-generation (4-G) 46
- 4.4.5 Advantages and disadvantages, by generation 46

5 HYDROCARBON BIOFUELS 48

5.1 Biodiesel 48
- 5.1.1 Biodiesel by generation 49
- 5.1.2 Production of biodiesel and other biofuels 50
  - 5.1.2.1 Pyrolysis of biomass 51
  - 5.1.2.2 Vegetable oil transesterification 54
  - 5.1.2.3 Vegetable oil hydrogenation (HVO) 55
  - 5.1.2.4 Biodiesel from tall oil 57
  - 5.1.2.5 Fischer-Tropsch BioDiesel 57
  - 5.1.2.6 Hydrothermal liquefaction of biomass 59
  - 5.1.2.7 CO2 capture and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) 59
  - 5.1.2.8 Dymethyl ether (DME) 60
- 5.1.3 Global production and consumption 60
5.2 Renewable diesel 63
- 5.2.1 Production 63
- 5.2.2 Global consumption 64
5.3 Bio-jet (bio-aviation) fuels 66
- 5.3.1 Description 66
- 5.3.2 Global market 66
- 5.3.3 Production pathways 67
- 5.3.4 Costs 69
- 5.3.5 Biojet fuel production capacities 70
- 5.3.6 Challenges 70
- 5.3.7 Global consumption 71
5.4 Syngas 72
5.5 Biogas and biomethane 73
- 5.5.1 Feedstocks 75
5.6 Bio-naphtha 77
- 5.6.1 Overview 77
- 5.6.2 Markets and applications 78
- 5.6.3 Production capacities, by producer, current and planned 79
- 5.6.4 Production capacities, total (tonnes), historical, current and planned 81

6 ALCOHOL FUELS 82

6.1 Biomethanol 82
- 6.1.1 Methanol-to gasoline technology 82
  - 6.1.1.1 Production processes 83
6.2 Bioethanol 86
- 6.2.1 Technology description 86
- 6.2.2 1G Bio-Ethanol 86
- 6.2.3 Ethanol to jet fuel technology 87
- 6.2.4 Methanol from pulp & paper production 88
- 6.2.5 Sulfite spent liquor fermentation 88
- 6.2.6 Gasification 89
  - 6.2.6.1 Biomass gasification and syngas fermentation 89
  - 6.2.6.2 Biomass gasification and syngas thermochemical conversion 89
- 6.2.7 CO2 capture and alcohol synthesis 90
- 6.2.8 Biomass hydrolysis and fermentation 90
  - 6.2.8.1 Separate hydrolysis and fermentation 90
  - 6.2.8.2 Simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) 91
  - 6.2.8.3 Pre-hydrolysis and simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (PSSF) 91
  - 6.2.8.4 Simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation (SSCF) 91
  - 6.2.8.5 Direct conversion (consolidated bioprocessing) (CBP) 92
- 6.2.9 Global ethanol consumption 93
6.3 Biobutanol 94
- 6.3.1 Production 96

7 CHEMICAL RECYCLING FOR BIOFUELS 97

7.1 Plastic pyrolysis 97
7.2 Used tires pyrolysis 98
- 7.2.1 Conversion to biofuel 99
7.3 Co-pyrolysis of biomass and plastic wastes 100
7.4 Gasification 101
- 7.4.1 Syngas conversion to methanol 102
- 7.4.2 Biomass gasification and syngas fermentation 106
- 7.4.3 Biomass gasification and syngas thermochemical conversion 106
7.5 Hydrothermal cracking 107

8 ELECTROFUELS (E-FUELS) 108

8.1 Introduction 108
- 8.1.1 Benefits of e-fuels 110
8.2 Feedstocks 111
- 8.2.1 Hydrogen electrolysis 111
- 8.2.2 CO2 capture 112
8.3 Production 112
8.4 Electrolysers 114
- 8.4.1 Commercial alkaline electrolyser cells (AECs) 116
- 8.4.2 PEM electrolysers (PEMEC) 116
- 8.4.3 High-temperature solid oxide electrolyser cells (SOECs) 116
8.5 Costs 116
8.6 Market challenges 119
8.7 Companies 120

9 ALGAE-DERIVED BIOFUELS 121

9.1 Technology description 121
9.2 Production 121

10 GREEN AMMONIA 123

10.1 Production 123
- 10.1.1 Decarbonisation of ammonia production 125
- 10.1.2 Green ammonia projects 126
10.2 Green ammonia synthesis methods 126
- 10.2.1 Haber-Bosch process 126
- 10.2.2 Biological nitrogen fixation 127
- 10.2.3 Electrochemical production 128
- 10.2.4 Chemical looping processes 128
10.3 Blue ammonia 128
- 10.3.1 Blue ammonia projects 128
10.4 Markets and applications 129
- 10.4.1 Chemical energy storage 129
  - 10.4.1.1 Ammonia fuel cells 129
- 10.4.2 Marine fuel 130
10.5 Costs 132
10.6 Estimated market demand 134
10.7 Companies and projects 134

11 BIOFUELS FROM CARBON CAPTURE 136

11.1 Overview 137
11.2 CO2 capture from point sources 139
11.3 Production routes 140
11.4 Direct air capture (DAC) 141
- 11.4.1 Description 141
- 11.4.2 Deployment 143
- 11.4.3 Point source carbon capture versus Direct Air Capture 143
- 11.4.4 Technologies 144
  - 11.4.4.1 Solid sorbents 145
  - 11.4.4.2 Liquid sorbents 147
  - 11.4.4.3 Liquid solvents 148
  - 11.4.4.4 Airflow equipment integration 149
  - 11.4.4.5 Passive Direct Air Capture (PDAC) 149
  - 11.4.4.6 Direct conversion 149
  - 11.4.4.7 Co-product generation 150
  - 11.4.4.8 Low Temperature DAC 150
  - 11.4.4.9 Regeneration methods 150
- 11.4.5 Commercialization and plants 151
- 11.4.6 Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) in DAC 152
- 11.4.7 DAC plants and projects-current and planned 152
- 11.4.8 Markets for DAC 159
- 11.4.9 Costs 159
- 11.4.10 Challenges 165
- 11.4.11 Players and production 166
11.5 Methanol 166
11.6 Algae based biofuels 167
11.7 CO₂-fuels from solar 168
11.8 Companies 170
11.9 Challenges 172

12 COMPANY PROFILES 173 (171 company profiles)

13 REFERENCES 310

List of Tables

Table 1. Market drivers for biofuels. 19
Table 2. Market challenges for biofuels. 20
Table 3. Liquid biofuels market 2020-2033, by type and production. 22
Table 4. Industry developments in biofuels 2020-2023. 24
Table 5. Comparison of biofuel costs (USD/liter) 2022, by type. 30
Table 6. Categories and examples of solid biofuel. 31
Table 7. Comparison of biofuels and e-fuels to fossil and electricity. 33
Table 8. Classification of biomass feedstock. 34
Table 9. Biorefinery feedstocks. 35
Table 10. Feedstock conversion pathways. 35
Table 11. First-Generation Feedstocks. 36
Table 12. Lignocellulosic ethanol plants and capacities. 38
Table 13. Comparison of pulping and biorefinery lignins. 39
Table 14. Commercial and pre-commercial biorefinery lignin production facilities and processes 40
Table 15. Operating and planned lignocellulosic biorefineries and industrial flue gas-to-ethanol. 42
Table 16. Properties of microalgae and macroalgae. 44
Table 17. Yield of algae and other biodiesel crops. 45
Table 18. Advantages and disadvantages of biofuels, by generation. 46
Table 19. Biodiesel by generation. 49
Table 20. Biodiesel production techniques. 51
Table 21. Summary of pyrolysis technique under different operating conditions. 51
Table 22. Biomass materials and their bio-oil yield. 53
Table 23. Biofuel production cost from the biomass pyrolysis process. 53
Table 24. Properties of vegetable oils in comparison to diesel. 55
Table 25. Main producers of HVO and capacities. 56
Table 26. Example commercial Development of BtL processes. 57
Table 27. Pilot or demo projects for biomass to liquid (BtL) processes. 58
Table 28. Global biodiesel consumption, 2010-2033 (M litres/year). 62
Table 29. Global renewable diesel consumption, to 2033 (M litres/year). 64
Table 30. Advantages and disadvantages of biojet fuel 66
Table 31. Production pathways for bio-jet fuel. 67
Table 32. Current and announced biojet fuel facilities and capacities. 70
Table 33. Global bio-jet fuel consumption to 2033 (Million litres/year). 71
Table 34. Biogas feedstocks. 75
Table 35. Bio-based naphtha markets and applications. 78
Table 36. Bio-naphtha market value chain. 78
Table 37. Bio-based Naphtha production capacities, by producer. 79
Table 38. Comparison of biogas, biomethane and natural gas. 84
Table 39. Processes in bioethanol production. 90
Table 40. Microorganisms used in CBP for ethanol production from biomass lignocellulosic. 92
Table 41. Ethanol consumption 2010-2033 (million litres). 93
Table 42. Summary of gasification technologies. 101
Table 43. Overview of hydrothermal cracking for advanced chemical recycling. 107
Table 44. Applications of e-fuels, by type. 109
Table 45. Overview of e-fuels. 110
Table 46. Benefits of e-fuels. 110
Table 47. Main characteristics of different electrolyzer technologies. 115
Table 48. Market challenges for e-fuels. 119
Table 49. E-fuels companies. 120
Table 50. Green ammonia projects (current and planned). 126
Table 51. Blue ammonia projects. 128
Table 52. Ammonia fuel cell technologies. 129
Table 53. Market overview of green ammonia in marine fuel. 130
Table 54. Summary of marine alternative fuels. 131
Table 55. Estimated costs for different types of ammonia. 133
Table 56. Main players in green ammonia. 134
Table 57. Market overview for CO2 derived fuels. 137
Table 58. Point source examples. 139
Table 59. Advantages and disadvantages of DAC. 142
Table 60. Companies developing airflow equipment integration with DAC. 149
Table 61. Companies developing Passive Direct Air Capture (PDAC) technologies. 149
Table 62. Companies developing regeneration methods for DAC technologies. 150
Table 63. DAC companies and technologies. 151
Table 64. DAC technology developers and production. 153
Table 65. DAC projects in development. 157
Table 66. Markets for DAC. 159
Table 67. Costs summary for DAC. 159
Table 68. Cost estimates of DAC. 163
Table 69. Challenges for DAC technology. 165
Table 70. DAC companies and technologies. 166
Table 71. Microalgae products and prices. 168
Table 72. Main Solar-Driven CO2 Conversion Approaches. 169
Table 73. Companies in CO2-derived fuel products. 170
Table 74. Granbio Nanocellulose Processes. 232

List of Figures

Figure 1. Liquid biofuel production and consumption (in thousands of m3), 2000-2021. 21
Figure 2. Distribution of global liquid biofuel production in 2021. 22
Figure 3. Diesel and gasoline alternatives and blends. 29
Figure 4. Schematic of a biorefinery for production of carriers and chemicals. 40
Figure 5. Hydrolytic lignin powder. 43
Figure 6. Regional production of biodiesel (billion litres). 49
Figure 7. Flow chart for biodiesel production. 54
Figure 8. Global biodiesel consumption, 2010-2033 (M litres/year). 61
Figure 9. Global renewable diesel consumption, to 2033 (M litres/year). 64
Figure 10. Global bio-jet fuel consumption to 2033 (Million litres/year). 71
Figure 11. Total syngas market by product in MM Nm³/h of Syngas, 2021. 72
Figure 12. Overview of biogas utilization. 74
Figure 13. Biogas and biomethane pathways. 75
Figure 14. Bio-based naphtha production capacities, 2018-2033 (tonnes). 81
Figure 15. Renewable Methanol Production Processes from Different Feedstocks. 83
Figure 16. Production of biomethane through anaerobic digestion and upgrading. 84
Figure 17. Production of biomethane through biomass gasification and methanation. 85
Figure 18. Production of biomethane through the Power to methane process. 86
Figure 19. Ethanol consumption 2010-2033 (million litres). 93
Figure 20. Properties of petrol and biobutanol. 95
Figure 21. Biobutanol production route. 95
Figure 22. Waste plastic production pathways to (A) diesel and (B) gasoline 97
Figure 23. Schematic for Pyrolysis of Scrap Tires. 99
Figure 24. Used tires conversion process. 100
Figure 25. Total syngas market by product in MM Nm³/h of Syngas, 2021. 102
Figure 26. Overview of biogas utilization. 104
Figure 27. Biogas and biomethane pathways. 105
Figure 28. Process steps in the production of electrofuels. 108
Figure 29. Mapping storage technologies according to performance characteristics. 109
Figure 30. Production process for green hydrogen. 112
Figure 31. E-liquids production routes. 113
Figure 32. Fischer-Tropsch liquid e-fuel products. 113
Figure 33. Resources required for liquid e-fuel production. 114
Figure 34. Levelized cost and fuel-switching CO2 prices of e-fuels. 117
Figure 35. Cost breakdown for e-fuels. 119
Figure 36. Pathways for algal biomass conversion to biofuels. 121
Figure 37. Algal biomass conversion process for biofuel production. 122
Figure 38. Classification and process technology according to carbon emission in ammonia production. 123
Figure 39. Green ammonia production and use. 125
Figure 40. Schematic of the Haber Bosch ammonia synthesis reaction. 127
Figure 41. Schematic of hydrogen production via steam methane reformation. 127
Figure 42. Estimated production cost of green ammonia. 133
Figure 43. Projected annual ammonia production, million tons. 134
Figure 44. CO2 capture and separation technology. 136
Figure 45. Conversion route for CO2-derived fuels and chemical intermediates. 138
Figure 46. Conversion pathways for CO2-derived methane, methanol and diesel. 139
Figure 47. CO2 captured from air using liquid and solid sorbent DAC plants, storage, and reuse. 141
Figure 48. Global CO2 capture from biomass and DAC in the Net Zero Scenario. 142
Figure 49. DAC technologies. 144
Figure 50. Schematic of Climeworks DAC system. 145
Figure 51. Climeworks’ first commercial direct air capture (DAC) plant, based in Hinwil, Switzerland. 146
Figure 52. Flow diagram for solid sorbent DAC. 147
Figure 53. Direct air capture based on high temperature liquid sorbent by Carbon Engineering. 148
Figure 54. Global capacity of direct air capture facilities. 153
Figure 55. Global map of DAC and CCS plants. 158
Figure 56. Schematic of costs of DAC technologies. 161
Figure 57. DAC cost breakdown and comparison. 162
Figure 58. Operating costs of generic liquid and solid-based DAC systems. 164
Figure 59. CO2 feedstock for the production of e-methanol. 167
Figure 60. Schematic illustration of (a) biophotosynthetic, (b) photothermal, (c) microbial-photoelectrochemical, (d) photosynthetic and photocatalytic (PS/PC), (e) photoelectrochemical (PEC), and (f) photovoltaic plus electrochemical (PV+EC) approaches for CO2 c 169
Figure 61. Audi synthetic fuels. 170
Figure 62. ANDRITZ Lignin Recovery process. 179
Figure 63. ChemCyclingTM prototypes. 184
Figure 64. ChemCycling circle by BASF. 184
Figure 65. FBPO process 194
Figure 66. Direct Air Capture Process. 198
Figure 67. CRI process. 201
Figure 68. Cassandra Oil process. 204
Figure 69. Colyser process. 210
Figure 70. Domsjö process. 214
Figure 71. ECFORM electrolysis reactor schematic. 216
Figure 72. Dioxycle modular electrolyzer. 217
Figure 73. FuelPositive system. 227
Figure 74. INERATEC unit. 241
Figure 75. Infinitree swing method. 242
Figure 76. Enfinity cellulosic ethanol technology process. 272
Figure 77: Plantrose process. 278
Figure 78. Sunfire process for Blue Crude production. 293
Figure 79. O12 Reactor. 296
Figure 80. Sunglasses with lenses made from CO2-derived materials. 296
Figure 81. CO2 made car part. 297
Figure 82. The Velocys process. 300
Figure 83. Goldilocks process and applications. 303
Figure 84. The Proesa® Process. 304

The Global Market for Biofuels to 2033

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February 2023 | 322 pages, 74 tables, 84 figures | Download table of contents

1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 18

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 19

3 INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS 2020-2023 24

4 BIOFUELS 28

5 HYDROCARBON BIOFUELS 48

6 ALCOHOL FUELS 82

7 CHEMICAL RECYCLING FOR BIOFUELS 97

8 ELECTROFUELS (E-FUELS) 108

9 ALGAE-DERIVED BIOFUELS 121

10 GREEN AMMONIA 123

11 BIOFUELS FROM CARBON CAPTURE 136

12 COMPANY PROFILES 173 (171 company profiles)

13 REFERENCES 310

List of Tables

List of Figures

Payment methods: Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Alipay, Paypal.

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